Logistics Market
Short-haul routes are taking volume from long-haul lanes, rail mergers face heavy scrutiny, and fuel markets are preparing for federal intervention. Shippers face a shifting regional network landscape heading into the final quarter of the year.
Regional haul gains ground while long-haul loses momentum
Short-haul freight under 100 miles is up 35 percent year to date, according to reporting from FreightWaves on SONAR market data. That volume surge is altering regional truckload networks while long-haul over-the-road volumes slip. Intermodal providers are pulling freight out of standard truckload channels on longer corridors.
Class I railroads are capturing more cross-country freight. FreightWaves reported that North American rail traffic bounced back in Week 37, showing positive year-over-year growth across carload and intermodal categories. At the same time, private fleets and retail networks are building direct rail capabilities. Supply Chain Dive reported that Amazon debuted its Standard Ocean Express direct rail service to move inventory cross-country from Los Angeles to the East Coast faster than alternative options.
Truckload carriers are acting to keep drivers in their seats despite choppy overall freight conditions. Trucking Dive reported that Roehl Transport is boosting driver pay by up to 11 percent while raising compensation for owner-operators and lease operators. Fleet managers are paying up to maintain driver retention on core lanes. Fleet leadership is also evolving elsewhere in the market, with Trucking Dive reporting that TFI International will add Steve Mayer, president of financial firm Greenhill Canada, to its board of directors in late October. On the corporate shipper side, Supply Chain Dive reported that Ocean Spray named 25-year industry veteran Brad Hartzell as its chief supply chain officer.
Energy markets twitch on policy talk as interest rates step up
Fuel buyers got hit with sudden market volatility mid-week. FreightWaves reported that diesel futures dropped while gasoline futures rallied on Wednesday after news surfaced that the White House is considering a diesel export ban. Any government action on fuel exports will immediately reprice carrier fuel surcharges on upcoming tenders.
Macroeconomic borrowing costs are stepping higher across the supply chain. FreightWaves SONAR reported that the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent on September 16, taking effect September 17. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh cited inflation that remains too high. Higher interest rates keep continuous pressure on carrier equipment financing and warehousing capital costs.
Cross-border trade restrictions and operational disruptions are compounding costs for industrial supply chains. FreightWaves SONAR reported that following months of trade tension, the U.S. announced an outright ban on imports of Canadian dairy, alcohol, and large-displacement motorcycles effective September 29. Supply Chain Dive reported that plastics converters are navigating significant confusion over ongoing tariff developments, while high summer temperatures are delaying supplier deliveries and hobbling productivity for electronics manufacturers.
Regulators and rail boards standard-check compliance and mergers
Federal oversight is sharpening across both rail and motor carrier operations. Trucking Dive reported that the Surface Transportation Board denied requests from chemical and fertilizer trade associations to dismiss the proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern. However, regulatory review remains contentious. FreightWaves reported that a Surface Transportation Board member issued a concurring opinion criticizing the rail merger application as shallow and lacking critical detail.
On the highway side, driver qualification enforcement is picking up support. Land Line reported that truck drivers are voicing support for an FMCSA proposal to make out-of-service orders permanent for drivers violating English-proficiency rules. Driver licensing oversight is also drawing legislative scrutiny. Land Line reported that lawmakers are pressing California Governor Gavin Newsom for answers after an investigation into a fatal crash on the Ohio Turnpike revealed the truck driver received a CDL in California. Land Line separately noted that the fatal Ohio Turnpike crash has generated three lawsuits targeting drivers, dealerships, and the toll plaza.
Hours of service rules may see increased operational flexibility down the road. Trucking Dive reported that FMCSA is prepping to expand its flexible driving hour pilot program covering split duty and flexible sleeper berth rules following six-week pre-tests involving nine drivers across three motor carriers. In state infrastructure news, Trucking Dive reported that Oregon added PrePass weigh station bypass technology to help carriers reduce scale house downtime, while Land Line reported that voters in South Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia will decide upcoming ballot measures on transportation taxes. Market intelligence is also gaining federal traction, as FreightWaves SONAR reported that the U.S. Department of Transportation signed a deal to receive high-frequency freight market data.
Fleet technology and LTL rate increases move ahead
Shippers and large carriers are putting real capital into zero-emission Class 8 equipment. FreightWaves and Supply Chain Dive reported that a shipper coalition including Microsoft and PepsiCo placed an order for 2,500 electric Class 8 trucks, marking the largest electric truck order in the nation to date. Tesla secured the primary vehicle supply role, with deployments targeted at 10 major freight hubs stretching from Los Angeles to Newark. Land Line reported that California passed legislation expanding truck vouchers and mandating price transparency to support zero-emission deployments.
Small fleets are leveraging artificial intelligence tools and analytics to curb overhead and legal risk. FreightWaves reported that Wisconsin fleet owner Pam Polyak recovered 53,000 dollars in annual labor costs by auditing fleet telematics data using Claude AI. Meanwhile, litigation risk remains a top fleet concern. A FreightWaves roundtable featuring Greg Reed of Hanson Bridgett and Drew Singleton Wilder of Vicarious Liability Risk Management highlighted how nuclear verdicts continue reshaping carrier risk and insurance costs.
In the LTL sector, price hikes are scheduled for October. Trucking Dive and Supply Chain Dive reported that Old Dominion Freight Line announced a 4.9 percent general rate increase effective October 5 across select services. To help shippers navigate RFP pricing and network benchmarks, FreightWaves SONAR announced the launch of SCI Custom Insights with a October 1 demo webinar, alongside an upgrade to its Batch Rate Intelligence tool into a full RFP pricing engine.
What this means for your freight rates
Shippers routing long-haul over-the-road freight should evaluate intermodal options as rail networks capture volume and offer competitive transit times out of West Coast hubs. Short-haul capacity remains tight as under-100-mile volumes rise 35 percent, meaning regional carrier spot rates could firm up faster than long-haul lanes.
With Old Dominion posting a 4.9 percent general rate increase for October 5 and diesel futures shifting on federal export ban discussions, unhedged freight budgets face instant cost creep. Benchmark your contract and spot lanes today using the free Logistics Market freight rate tool to keep your routing guides competitive.